Op/Ed: California’s Momentum on Transportation Emission Reductions Stops Here?

Neil Matouka is a climate and energy policy expert based in Sacramento. 

Transportation emissions represent roughly 40% of the state’s greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory. There are generally three ways to reduce transportation emissions: reduce the emissions intensity of existing transportation modes (fuel switching, electrification, lower carbon fuel sources), mode switching (switching from trucks to trains or single occupancy vehicles to transit or walking and biking), or reducing the amount of driving to daily destinations.

Mode switching and reducing driving fall under the broader category of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) reductions which have been identified as necessary in the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) Scoping Plan as necessary for reaching our net-zero goals.

A substantial portion of California’s projected transportation emission reductions will come from two program areas: zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) regulations and VMT reductions through Sustainable Communities Strategies (SCS). However, these programs are either under attack from the federal government or lacking in adequate implementation, threatening California’s climate goals and leaving California with few existing policy options to address rising transportation emissions.

Zero Emission Vehicles

California’s ZEV standards and mandates (including the CARB’s Advanced Clean Cars (ACC) program, canceled Zero-Emission Motorcycle (ZEM) regulation, Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulation, Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT), and more) rely on federal Clean Air Act waivers from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Early on in his administration, Trump indicated he would immediately seek to revoke California’s waivers, though there were protections in place to make this unlikely. 

California’s ZEV programs have been incredibly successful at driving adoption of new electric vehicles and delivering many of the benefits associated with lower numbers of internal combustion vehicles in operation. Programs such as California’s statewide ZEV targets and incentives seek to expand the benefits of zero-emission technologies beyond just wealthy, early-adopter communities. 

Now the U.S. Senate has voted to rescind California’s Clean Air Act waiver, jeopardizing California’s ability to implement its 2035 ZEV sales mandate. Despite the questionable legality of using the Congressional Review Act to rescind the waivers, California will have to decide to fight an expensive legal battle or scrap one of its largest climate goals.

Sustainable Communities Strategies 

Sustainable Communities Strategies, established through SB 375 (Steinberg) in 2008, are mandatory regional plans that align housing, land use, and transportation planning to achieve regional GHG reduction targets set by CARB. The goal of each plan is to support the development of communities that meet the needs of residents while reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) to reach jobs and amenities. Each subsequent round of SCS plans should use a more stringent GHG reduction target set through CARB’s target setting process. 

However, progress reports on SCS implementation show that VMT and GHG emissions from personal vehicle travel have increased rather than decreased. 

Additionally, the metropolitan planning organizations (MPO) tasked with developing and supporting the implementation of SCS plans have asked for a pause on the new SB 375 target setting process, creating additional uncertainty regarding the program’s viability.

Policy Considerations

In order to create durable and viable policies to reduce emissions from the transportation sector, California needs to rely on the authorities the State holds or delegates. California policymakers have a number of tools at their disposal to help address the weakening of the very climate policies they put in place.

1. Just as California uses its central procurement authority to purchase offshore wind capacity, it can use its existing procurement processes to supercharge the California market for ZEVs by making procurement mandatory for State agencies.
2. California can stop building new highways, stop expanding existing highways, and convert High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes to transit-only lanes. Highways are disproportionately responsible for enabling California’s transportation emissions and creating sprawl that cuts communities off from jobs, amenities, and healthcare.
3. The State delegates its land-use authority to local governments and can require local planning activities of governments. California can tie SCS VMT reduction strategy implementation to state funding and grants, requiring implementation of existing laws and regulations and incentivizing new infill housing production.
4. California can dramatically increase land conservation efforts outside of existing communities through increased funding and expanded eligibility for programs such as the Sustainable Agricultural Lands Conservation (SALC) program or designating existing natural and working lands across the state as ineligible for upzoning to curb sprawl.

California’s climate regime relies on a fragile equilibrium of local, state, and federal cooperation. This equilibrium is not functioning the way it was when the state’s policies were conceived. California lawmakers (and voters) need to reconsider what climate policy looks like to achieve the state’s climate goals without sacrificing affordability for its residents.